Normal Accidents LO12070
Sun, 19 Jan 1997 13:19:17 -0500 (EST)

Replying to LO12058 --

Two amplifications on human error

1. System reliability is the total of the multiplied reliability of each
componant. Thus the system reliability of a machine with three parts a,b,
and c, is (reliability a) x (reliability b) x (reliability c). Most
people, however, will intuitively attempt to add the chances of failure of
each componant or each step in a process to establish the overall odds of
failure or accident potential. (reliability a) + (reliability b) +
(reliability c).

2. It is normally very easy to find the reliability of each componant in
a machine. It is normally very difficult to find all the componants of an
interactive process between groups of people. It is not math that stands
in our way but awareness.

Lon Badgett

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