Choice is an illusion? LO4480

John Woods (jwoods@execpc.com)
Fri, 29 Dec 1995 10:12:32 -0600 (CST)

Replying to LO4464 --

With regard to the question below, there is no direct answer except to say
you will confront the situation, think about it in terms of your
experience, knowledge, and the information available, and then you will
"choose" whatever is consistent with your thinking at that time. If the
way you make sense of the situation does not point out what you should do,
that's when flipping a coin may make the most sense. We always behave in
ways that are consistent with our understanding at the time. If we had
access to the same information as the imaginary being, we would choose the
million dollar box. If we don't, we'll do the best we can given our
understanding, which is what I have said before and will continue to say
(because that is consistent with how I see the world).

John Woods
jwoods@execpc.com

choose the one

>Then there is Newcombe's paradox as follows......
>
>There is an imaginary being, one that has the ability to predict human
>choices with almost total accuracy. It has never made an incorrect
>prediction about your actions, and you know that this being has often
>correctly predicted the choices of others. The being shows you two boxes.
>
>box 1 contains $1000
>Box 2 contains eihther $1,000,000 or nothing.
>
>You have two choices.
>You can take what is both boxes, or you can take only what is in the
>second box.
>If you choose to take what is in both boxes, the being (corrctly
>predicting this) will leave box 2 empty. So you will get $1000.
>
>If you opt for the second choice and take only box 2, the being,
>(predicting this) will ensure there is the $1,000,000 in it.
>
>So, the being makes the prediction, then it arranges the boxes, then he
>tells you the conditions, then you make your choice.
>What do you do?
>Choose your solution.
>
>Joseph O'Connor
>joseph@demon.co.uk

--
jwoods@execpc.com (John Woods)