> Date: Thu, 12 Oct 1995 17:32:07 -0400
> From: firstname.lastname@example.org
<<< some deletions here >>>
> I would like to share one comment with you about Karl-Henrik Robert's
> presentation. I found the concept of backcasting very valuable. But it had
> a component to it that enriches the description you gave us:
> "They use "backcasting": define the goal, and work backwards
> from it, rather than forecasting from today's trends"
> I use a process called a "compelling future," in which I ask people to
> move into the future and describe what it looks and feels like to be
> living there, assuming they've reached their goal. This is very helpful to
> turn the goal from a static image into a richly-described process; and to
> work backwards from there.
> What Karl-Henrik added to that that I found exciting is the idea that we
> should imagine having reached that goal in consonance with our principles.
> It is one thing for me to identify a goal state (i.e., "living on a green
> planet"). It is another thing for me to know what it would look and feel
> like if I got there, and was able to live there, with the help of my
> Marilyn Darling
I use a similar approach in my strategic management classes. The teams
work on the development of scenarios for the future. I normally say
somewhere between 20 and 30 years. Then they are asked to imagine what a
company of their choice looks like in that scenario. This assumes that
the company has survived up that time. Then they are asked to compare
waht the company looks like today with it looks like in the future
scenario, indentifying the gaps and finfing the actions to be taken to
fill the gaps. Since the future is too uncertain, then I do not impose
the condition that their scenarios have to make too much sense. The only
condition is that there has to be some harmony between what the company
looks like, etc., and the conditions described in the future context.
One of the reason I like this approach so much is that it forces the
learning partners to think forward. I insist to them that the best
managers are the ones who, among other things, are able to visualize the
future. This exercise not only helps them think futuristically, but also
helps in questioning the status quo. This does not mean that they are
going to change it, but just to check it out to make sure that yesterday's
establishment is still valid today, and tomorrow, and the next day...
-- *************************************************************** R. IVAN BLANCO, Ph.D. Voice 305 899-3515 Assoc. Prof. & Director Fax 305 892-6412 International Business Programs Andreas School of Business _________E-Mail Addresses________ Barry University Bitnet: Blanco%bu4090@Barryu Miami Shores, FL 33161-6695 Internet: Blanco@bu4090.barry.edu <<<<< ---------------- >>>>> "Las naciones marchan hacia el termino de su grandeza, con el mismo paso que camina su educacion." "The nations march toward their greatness at the same pace as their educational systems evolve." Simon Bolivar ===============================================================