Fore/backcasting LO3249

Willard Jule (75272.3452@compuserve.com)
18 Oct 95 09:08:54 EDT

Was: STIA- The Natural Step LO3223

Dave Buffenbarger asked something like "is forecasting or backcasting more
natural?"

I am not an expert in Neuroliguistic Programming, but some of the thought
processes the NLPers describe seem relevant to this question. In
particular one pair of processes is that some people move towards and
others move away from. I term this as moving out of possibility or
necessity. In my case, I have found that it is important to differentiate
thinking and acting.

I find that I am a possibility thinker but a necessity actor. I concieve
possibilities, back cast to figure out what I have to do to arrive at that
possibility, and then set action deadlines. I find that i don't act until
the deadline is upon me. It is a somewhat ineffective way for me to act
because it keeps me in a constant state of tension (creative and
otherwise). Even though I am aware of this, I haven't found an internal
motivator to change this way of being. When push comes to shove, I am
probably an adrenaline junkie and this way of being keeps me in constant
supply.

In any case, I think that our thought processes (mental models) evolve out
of our formative, non-critical thinking years and with these in place we
do have a tendency to forecast or backcast. Recignizing this, a friend
introduced me to the pre-play/re-play school of planning. If you want the
re-play (the result of executing a plan) to look like the pre-play (what
the plan was designed to produce), then do failure mode anlaysis of your
plan before you implement it. Also, build learning loops into the plan
execution cycle (this will emerge from the fialure mode analysis if you
are aware of the imperfections of planning).

By the way, this type of process forces a fairly clear statement of
assumptions which enables learning and documenting for corporate memory.
The explicit statement of assumptions also provides the basis for future
process redesign without having to reinvent the wheel.

By the way, one way to build a living corporate memory is to build a
computer simulator of your business and keep updating based on your best
(most validated) information. If you have systems thinker/model builders
in your org, they can extract principles from your learnings and pass on
the principles rather than the specific processes or ways to effect the
processes.

Later, folks.

--
Willard Jule
75272.3452@compuserve.com