Re: Creating a Company Vision

GAWNE, SEAN (gawnesm@songs.sce.com)
Fri, 06 Jan 95 19:18:15 PST

Scott - I read a thought-provoking book about this subject a while back
(unfortunately the title escapes me) in which the author makes an important
point - most of the important events in history were complete surprises.
Predictable evolutionary change takes place all the time but the really
important stuff is usually totally unexpected.

Would you have invested in MTV 20 years ago?
Did you predict the success of Rap "music"?
Who foresaw the peaceful collapse of the Soviet Empire?
Who predicted the political changes in this country in the past three or four
years? (Well, I did, but who else?)
Who expected plastic to have such effect on man and nature?
Who thought we'd all be flying spaceships by 1984?
What happened to nuclear energy "too cheap to meter"?

I could go on ad nauseum, but I'll spare you. The point is that futurists have
a very poor track record. And it's also a bit problematic in a business sense.
There is an old saying, it's okay to build castles in the sky, as long as you
don't try to move in. It sounds hokey, but shareholders tend to be pretty
hokey types. They don't always appreciate you risking their money.

There is a metaphor of knowledge of the universe as a sort of puddle, with
knowledge as the puddle and ignorance the area outside the puddle. As the pool
of knowledge grows, the surface increases, and our awareness of the ignorance
increases. So the more we know, the more we feel ignorant. It's a wierd
paradox but has some truth. Of course it's just another metaphor, the body of
knowledge is neither a body nor a puddle, but let's not get into that
again.... :-)

(-; Sean Gawne, gawnesm@songs.sce.com :-)

"The greatest thing about the future is that it comes one day at a
time." - Abraham Lincoln


While visioning used to be an endeavor I was quite comfortable with (a good
sign of trouble!), I have developed angst about articulating vision after
reading in the chaos literature. Ralph Stacey in "Managing the Unknowable"
makes a compelling case against trying to define a destination in a future
which is unknowable. Seems to me the problem arises over the quality of
seeing a desired destination. The examples of such vision which have been
successful seem far and few inbetween (we did put someone on the moon).
However, visions which do not include a specific destination, such as
Disney seeking to be the best entertainment company in the world, are far
more robust in dealing with the quantumness of our universe. I'm under the
impression that much of the vision piece in the 5th D. comes from Fritz. I
can see the creative tension caused by comparing a blank canvass with an
envisioned landscape painting. However, is this fully analogous with the
environment faced by companies in our increasingly unpredictable world? The

only thing certain about the future is increased complexity (the innate
tendency of quantum systems - Zohar has blown my mind here). In such a
world is articulating vision like trying to see the pattern of a strange
attractor?

Scott Dawson - spinning out of control!
Portland,OR

ScottD@sbamail.sba.pdx.edu