Six key items on the Jorgen Randers' list of politically realistic leveraging points for bringing world population and global warming back under control or into equilibrium.

Jay Forrester's high leverage policy for bringing world population and global warming back under control or into equilibrium are reduction in the rate of increase in capital investment in both agriculture and health facilities. At present such a policy is not politically feasible. It would only be feasible if the state of the world, which is presently desperate, were perceived to be desperate. His policy is based on his system dynamics book, World Dynamics.

The system dynamicist, Jorgen Randers, has recently made a list of more politically realistic leveraging points. Here are his six key points:

  1. Education of women.
    (Even small doses of education of females appear to lower the family size dramatically.)
  2. Increased eco-efficiency.
    (The goal of reducing the resource and energy use per unit of consumption is both inspiring, profitable in the short run, and capable of fitting more wealthy humans onto the planet.)
  3. Removal of subsidies for environmentally damaging resource extraction.
    (There is increasing political support for this move towards 'correct prices' that cover the external costs of farming, fisheries, and mining.)
  4. Higher price for energy.
    (Much environmental damage is caused by cheap energy, and energy efficiency can be increased without much decline in the quality of life, given the right financial incentives.)
  5. Increased health concerns.
    (While people may not be willing to sacrifice their own welfare for the common good, some do seem willing to show restraint now for better health tomorrow, for instance, by paying more for organically grown food.)
  6. More virtual reality.
    (The internet will offer a tremendous array of experiences with a minimal ecological footprint.)
(This quote was taken from Randers' Fall 2000 article: From limits to growth to sustainable development. System Dynamics Review 16: 213-224. Randers is currently a professor at the Norwegian School of Management in Oslo, and serves as a member of the Board of Directors of a number of companies. He holds a PhD in system dynamics from MIT. In 1974 he founded the Resource Policy Group in Oslo. From 1981 to 1989 he was President of the Norwegian School of Management. He has also held senior managerial posts in leading Norwegian business firms, and from 1994 to 1999 was Deputy Director General of WWF, the World Wide Fund for Nature.)

Here are three important system dynamics books on world dynamics:

  1. Forrester JW. 1971. World Dynamics. Wright-Allen Press. Subsequently re-published by Productivity Press and Pegasus Communications.
  2. Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J. 1992. Beyond the Limits. Chelsea Green: Post Mills, VT.
  3. Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J, Behren W. 1972. The Limits to Growth. Universe Press:NewYork.}

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