Robert D. Kaplan/Thomas F. Homer-Dixon's assessment of the World:

"Homer-Dixon believes the world is headed for a split between 'those societies that can maintain an adequate supply of ingenuity and those that cannot ... We will probably see, for example, falling grain prices and regional food surpluses in Western countries occurring simultaneously with scarcity-induced civil strife in parts of Africa and Asia.' He concludes that

'the optimism of neoclassical economic[ists] ... who have great faith in the potential of human ingenuity when spurred by need is deceptive and imprudent. We are taking a huge gamble if we follow the path they suggest, which is to wait till scarcities are critical and watch human ingenuity burst forth in response. Should it turn out, in the end, that this stategy was wrong, we will not be able to return to a world resembling anything like the one we have today ... the soils, waters, and forests will be irreversibly damaged, and our societies, especially the poorest ones, will be so riven with discord that even heroic efforts at social renovation will fail.'

"Homer-Dixon assumes, optimistically, that the West can respond, at least potentially. But can it, given its aging population and household incomes that have not risen for over a generation? Foreign aid from the West will likely decline."

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