Ref#12: Quote of Forrester on the concept of shifting loop dominance

'By shifting loop dominance we mean the process by which control of a system moves from one set of feedback loops to another set, often with dramatic changes in behavior. The several control loops will all have been present in the system from the beginning but some lie inactive until conditions trigger them into operation.

'The processes behind the typical S-shaped growth curve serve as a simple example of shifting loop dominance. Consider a population expanding toward an upper limit to the carrying capacity of its environment. When the population is well below the limit, population expands exponentially, driven by a linear positive feedback loop in which additions to population increase in proportion to population itself. The positive feedback loop produces the initial upward-sweeping section of S-shaped growth. But as the limit to population is approached, a previously dormant linear negative feedback loop becomes active, interacts nonlinearly with the positive loop, reduces the growth rate of the positive feedback loop toward zero, and eventually takes full control to adjust population toward the limit whenever population deviates in either direction from the limit. The two loops come into operation at different times. First, the positive feedback loop of growth is in control during the early exponential growth phase. Later, the negative feedback loop exerts increasing control to neutralize the positive loop and convert the system to a goal-seeking search for an equilibrium at the population limit. Biological and social systems contain numerous structures that move in and out of dominance as forces shift.'
from J. W. Forrester, 'Nonlinearity in High-Order Models of Social Systems', paper number D-3691-1, March 1985, System Dynamics Group, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139.

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